The lithium market continued to battle headwinds during the first quarter of 2025 as residual oversupply weighed on prices, pushing them to a four-year low.
Weaker than expected demand to start the year also added pressure to the oversupplied market, resulting in the lithium carbonate CIF North Asia price to fall below US$9,550 per metric ton, its lowest point since 2021.
Analysts have suggested the persistent downturn is the signaling of a market bottom. This theory is further supported by a projected production reduction that will help absorb market oversupply.
“Lithium market conditions – particularly during the latter part of 2024 – led to growing producer restraint, both in China and elsewhere,” wrote Fastmarkets’ head of battery raw material analytics Paul Lusty. “Australian production cuts started in January 2024 but built momentum during the year, with several miners announcing production cuts, plans to place plants on care and maintenance and the suspension of planned expansions owing to market conditions.”
This has led the global commodities firm to forecast a shift in market dynamics, with analysts projecting a much tighter balance ahead. Initial estimates peg 2025’s surplus at 10,000 metric tons before the market moves into a deficit position in 2026.
How are Canadian lithium stocks performing against this backdrop?
1. Power Metals (TSXV:PWM)
Year-to-date gain: 163.04 percent
Market cap: C$196.57 million
Share price: C$1.21
Exploration company Power Metals holds a portfolio of diversified assets in Ontario and Québec, Canada. The company’s flagship Case Lake project in Ontario hosts spodumene-bearing lithium-cesium-tantalum pegmatites.
In November 2024, Power Metals identified a new pegmatite zone at Case Lake through soil sampling. The samples from the zone, located north-northwest of its West Joe prospect, revealed elevated levels of cesium, tantalum, lithium and rubidium, which the company said ‘affirmed prospective drill targets’ for its winter program.
On February 10, Power Metals announced the beginning of work associated with the maiden mineral resource estimate and preliminary economic assessment for Case Lake, which it plans to release in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 respectively. Days later on February 14, the company followed that announcement by releasing the final assays from its Phase 3 drilling at Case Lake, including “exceptional cesium oxide and tantalum intercepts” from the West Joe prospect.
The company’s share price rose in the weeks following the pair of announcements to reach a Q1 high of C$1.46 on February 25.
2. NOA Lithium Brines (TSXV:NOAL)
Year-to-date gain: 41.18 percent
Market cap: C$46.99 million
Share price: C$0.36
NOA is a lithium exploration and development company with three projects in Argentina’s Lithium Triangle region. The company’s flagship Rio Grande project and prospective Arizaro and Salinas Grandes land packages total more than 140,000 hectares.
In late January, NOA reported its completion of 28 vertical electrical sounding geophysics tests at the Rio Grande project as part of its 2025 exploration program.
The recent testing expands on past studies and will aid NOA’s water exploration program, refining one of three identified potential water sources.
In a subsequent corporate update on February 7, NOA outlined its plans for Q1 2025, which largely focused on the advancement of the Rio Grande project through geophysical evaluation and water exploration drilling. The company also plans to review engineering proposals for preliminary economic assessment work.
The company’s share price began climbing in early February and reached a Q1 high of C$0.37 on March 13.
The high came days after a Simply Wall Street report highlighted insider buying at the company, a signal of strong internal confidence. According to the report, NOA insiders invested C$862,600 over the prior six months, with C$358,000 of that coming in a single transaction by CEO and Director Gabriel Rubacha. Additionally, they had not sold any shares in the prior 12 months.
3. Frontier Lithium (TSXV:FL)
Year-to-date gain: 35.56 percent
Market cap: C$141.38 million
Share price: C$0.61
Pre-production mining company Frontier Lithium aims to be a strategic and integrated supplier of premium spodumene concentrates as well as battery-grade lithium salts in North America.
The Company’s flagship PAK lithium project, which is a joint venture with Mitsubishi (TSE:8058), holds the “largest land position and resource” in a premium lithium mineral district located in the Great Lakes region of Ontario, Canada. Frontier also owns the Spark deposit, located northwest of the PAK project.
Shares of Frontier Lithium reached a Q1 high of C$0.79 on March 4. After already trending upwards through February, its share price peaked alongside news that the Government of Canada and the Ontario Government supported the company’s plans to build a critical minerals refinery in Northern Ontario.
Once complete the proposed lithium conversion facility will process lithium from PAK into around 20,000 metric tons of lithium salts per year. “This expected capacity would support the production of batteries for approximately 500,000 electric vehicles per year,” Frontier’s statement reads.
4. Q2 Metals (TSXV:QTWO)
Year-to-date gain: 30.77 percent
Market cap: C$144.59 million
Share price: C$1.02
Exploration firm Q2 Metals is exploring three lithium properties — Cisco, Mia and Stellar — in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Québec, Canada. Its Mia project hosts the Mia trend, which spans over 10 kilometers, and its Stellar lithium property comprises 77 claims 6 kilometers north of the Mia property.
In 2024, Q2 Metals acquired the Cisco lithium property and spent much of the year exploring the area. In December, Q2 acquired a 100 percent interest in 545 additional mineral claims, tripling its land position at the Cisco lithium property. A February 12 update reported that metallurgical testing on 2024 drill core showed that the primary lithium-bearing mineral in Cisco pegmatite is spodumene.
On February 26, Q2 announced that investors exercised 12.8 million share purchase warrants at C$0.60 each, generating C$7.68 million in proceeds for the company. The warrants were issued through a private placement in February 2023.
Shares of Q2 jumped to a Q1 high price of C$1.08 on March 18. The following day, later the company released some early results from its ongoing winter drill program, which is targeting 6,000 to 8,000 meters of drilling using two diamond drill rigs. The first four holes intersected “multiple wide intercepts of spodumene pegmatite, expanding previously identified mineralization.” The longest continuous interval of spodumene mineralization is 179.6 meters.
5. Wealth Minerals (TSXV:WML)
Year-to-date gain: 20 percent
Market cap: C$18.47 million
Share price: C$0.06
Lithium exploration company Wealth Minerals owns three exploration-stage projects — Kuska, Pabellón and Yapuckuta— all located in Chile.
On February 3, Wealth Minerals released its first news of the year, announcing it penned a joint venture development deal with the Quechua Indigenous Community of Ollagüe for the development of the Kuska project.
Under the deal the Quechua community will hold a 5 percent free-carried interest and a board seat in the JV, ensuring community participation. The partnership may also explore additional projects in the region.
On February 6, Wealth Minerals acquired the Pabellón lithium project, consisting of a portfolio of 26 mineral exploration licenses with an area of 7,600 hectares located in Northern Chile near the Chile-Bolivia border. The project may serve as an additional source of material to Kuska.
The surface of Pabellón hosts South America’s only geothermal power plant, Cerro Pabellón, which is majority owned by electricity company ENEL (MIL:ENEL). Wealth Minerals stated it is considering installing a direct lithium extraction unit next to the plant.
The company’s share price spiked in mid-January, and touched a Q1 high of C$0.095 on January 31, February 7 and February 10.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
