Platinum appears to be headed for its first broadly balanced year since 2021, with new projections pointing to a small surplus in 2026 as supply recovers and investment demand retreats from unusually elevated 2025 levels.
The latest Platinum Quarterly from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) shows the market is still firmly set for a deficit in 2025, with a shortfall of 692,000 ounces, equal to roughly 9 percent of annual demand.
However, 2026 may be a turning point where the extreme tightness of recent years begins to ease — not because demand is weakening broadly, but because investment activity is expected to normalize.
Platinum market starting to self-correct
The platinum price has risen sharply in 2025 alongside a strong performance across precious metals, and the WPIC states that higher prices have started to produce early signs of a “self-solving” market.
Recycling volumes, which respond more quickly to price incentives than mining output, are increasing at a double-digit pace and are set to play a larger role in 2026. At the same time, the buildup of exchange warehouse stocks linked to tariff uncertainty in the US is expected to unwind next year if trade frictions ease.
Those trends collectively underpin the WPIC’s baseline forecast for next year: a market moving to near equilibrium, with a small surplus of about 20,000 ounces in 2026.
High lease rates a key feature of 2025
While next year’s platinum surplus looks to be modest, it’s worth noting that physical availability of the metal has tightened to levels rarely seen in modern times. Platinum’s implied one month lease rate averaged 15 percent in the third quarter of the year after sitting at only 1 percent through most of 2024, pointing to spot market stress.
At times in mid-July, lease rates spiked near 40 percent as traders scrambled for metal that was either unavailable in Europe, or locked up in China and the US due to trade-related risk management.
Even if prices have moderated some of the pressure, elevated lease rates remains a defining feature of 2025.
The WPIC maintains that many of the concerns around availability stem from the simple drawdown of physical stocks. Years of persistent deficits reduced vaulted inventories in Europe, undermining assumptions that large, accessible stores of metal would remain available to supplement shortfalls.
Instead, the combination of region-specific demand, US tariff fears and aggressive Chinese imports resulted in metal being redistributed into markets where it could not easily be lent out.
Platinum supply/demand dynamics in 2026
The WPIC expects these pressures to ease next year as supply increases.
Total supply is forecast to rise 4 percent year-on-year in 2026 to 7,404,000 ounces, the highest since 2021.
Mine production is expected to inch higher, mainly because South African producers will be able to release some of the semi-finished inventory they could not process earlier. Zimbabwean output is also anticipated to improve slightly, while declines in North America and Russia are expected to be relatively modest.
More importantly, platinum recycling supply is forecast to grow by 10 percent as a direct result of the stronger price environment and increased processing of spent autocatalysts.
On the flip side, total platinum demand is expected to drop 6 percent to 7,385,000 ounces in 2026, almost entirely because investment flows are set to normalize after an unusually strong 2025.
Investment demand is projected to fall 52 percent as exchange warehouse stocks unwind and investors take profits after this year’s price surge. The WPIC frames this shift not as weakening sentiment, but as a correction from one-off trade and macro conditions that inflated investment inflows last year.
Will the platinum price fall in 2026?
These supply/demand dynamics are expected to produce the narrow surplus projected for 2026.
However, the report emphasizes that market balance will not necessarily translate into lower prices. Spot physical tightness persists, with many structural constraints remaining in place and investors continuing to allocate toward hard assets given interest rate expectations and growing concerns around critical minerals security.
A surplus, but still a fragile market
The WPIC suggests that the 2026 surplus should be viewed as tentative and highly sensitive to disruptions.
Platinum mine supply remains vulnerable to operational and logistical issues, with output from South Africa and Russia being exposed to infrastructure pressure, equipment shortages and grade declines.
Moreover, the Section 232 US trade investigation is adding to the uncertainty. Delayed by the extended government shutdown, the review has been seen as a major driver of exchange warehouse inflows in 2025.
The outcome will shape how quickly those stocks return to the market, and whether regional price differentials persist into 2026, especially after China revoked its longstanding tax rebate on imported platinum this year.
Taken together, the WPIC’s outlook for 2026 portrays a market that is no longer defined by scarcity, but not yet comfortably supplied. After years of sizable deficits, a small surplus could dampen opportunities, but tightness in physical availability and the role of trade politics in shaping the market may still support the price.
Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
