House Republicans believe they are close to passing Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill.
After the meeting at the White House, with the president and members of the Freedom Caucus, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) suggested that the House could vote in the overnight on the Big, Beautiful Bill.
But it quickly became apparent that was a physical – and parliamentary – impossibility.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) later introduced a ‘manager’s amendment’ to make final changes to the bill. Those alterations were designed to coax holdouts to vote yes.
It’s now likely that the House debates the bill in the early hours of Thursday with a vote in perhaps the late morning.
But Democratic dilatory tactics could further delay passage of the bill.
It’s possible Democrats could engineer protest votes to ‘adjourn’ the House. Calls to ‘adjourn’ hold special privileges in the House and require immediate consideration.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) could also take advantage of a special debate time on the floor to ‘filibuster’ the measure. Top House leaders from both parties are afforded what’s called the ‘Magic Minute.’ That’s where they are allotted a ‘minute’ to speak on an issue. But the House really allows them to speak as long as they wish out of deference to their position. Then-House Minority Leader and future Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) set the record for the longest speech in November, 2021, delaying considering of former President Biden’s ‘Build Back Better’ Act. McCarthy spoke for eight hours and 32 minutes.
The House Freedom Caucus seems much more satisfied with the upcoming changes to the bill. Especially after the meeting with the president.
But here is the main reason the House wants to move this as quickly as possible:
Republicans don’t want the bill to fester. Problems develop the longer this sits out there. So when you think you have the votes, you put it on the floor and force the issue. There could also be attendance problems later on Thursday or beyond.
This subject has been jawboned to death for weeks. Johnson said weeks ago he wanted this passed by Memorial Day. So Johnson – and President Trump – want GOPers who are skeptical or holdouts to put up or shut up. You do that by putting the bill on the floor and requiring a vote.
That said, it’s possible the GOP leadership might not have the votes ahead of the actual roll call vote. So calling a vote applies pressure on those holdouts. Former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) used to ‘grow’ the vote on the House floor. In other words, they would start the vote – not having all the ducks in order – and then ‘grow’ the vote during the actual roll call and cajoling or twisting arms. The same may happen today.
Also, if the vote is a little shy of passage, Republican leaders could hold the vote open and then single out those Republicans who have either voted no or have not cast ballots. Then the leadership can really turn up the heat and accuse them of not supporting the president’s agenda. If push comes to shove, they can then have the President weigh in and use his powers to coax those holdouts to vote yes.
Here’s the long-term outlook: If the House passes the bill, this goes to the Senate. This will be a project which will consume most of June. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) wants this done by July 4. But the question is what the Senate actually produces. The House and Senate must be on the same page. If the Senate crafts a different legislative product, then this must return to the House to sync up. Either the House eats what the Senate put together. Or the House and Senate must blend their differing versions together into a single, unified bill. That could take most of July. Remember that this bill includes an increase in the debt ceiling. The Treasury says Congress must lift the debt ceiling by early August.
